More consumers are expected to shop the Black Friday sales in 2026, but a sharp fall in planned spending is forcing retailers to rethink blanket promotions, high-value baskets and the true cost of chasing volume.

UK spending across Black Friday and Cyber Monday is forecast to fall 32 per cent to £9.9bn this year, according to research from ecommerce marketing platform Omnisend. The comparable estimate for 2025 was £14.5bn, while average expected spend per shopper has dropped 31.5 per cent, from £390 to £267.

That contraction comes despite broader participation. The proportion of consumers who say they will buy nothing has fallen from 29.8 per cent to 24.8 per cent, suggesting retailers could see plenty of traffic without the same level of revenue. For merchants already balancing higher costs with cautious demand, the gap between shopper numbers and shopper value makes margin discipline increasingly important.

Marty Bauer, ecommerce expert at Omnisend, warns: “Retailers are facing a different Black Friday maths problem this year. They may have more shoppers willing to take part, but those customers are bringing less money to the sale.”

High spenders retreat as lower budgets grow

The most pronounced shift is at the top end of the market. Just 5.1 per cent of UK respondents intend to spend at least £1,000 during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, down from 12.7 per cent in 2025. The share planning to spend between £500 and £999 has also declined, from 14.3 per cent to 9.6 per cent.

At the other end of the scale, the proportion expecting to spend less than £100 has more than doubled, rising from 8.7 per cent to 18.4 per cent. The £100 to £249 bracket has grown from 20.8 per cent to 24.2 per cent. Although these are stated intentions rather than completed transactions, the figures point to smaller baskets and more selective purchasing at a moment when retailers traditionally compete aggressively on price.

Clothing and accessories lead planned purchases, cited by 39 per cent of respondents, followed by technology and electronics at 36.5 per cent, toys and games at 31.2 per cent, and beauty or self-care at 24.2 per cent. Food and drink is on the list for 18.2 per cent, potentially creating opportunities for grocery, gifting and specialist food businesses that can present a clear value proposition without relying on deep, store-wide reductions.

Bauer cautioned against interpreting constrained budgets as a reason to cut prices across every category. “The worst response to a smaller spending budget is a bigger blanket discount. For a business with narrow margins, cutting prices across the whole range can create plenty of activity without leaving much profit to show for it.”

Selective offers could beat site-wide discounts

The challenge is particularly acute for independent retailers, which may lack the scale or supplier leverage of the largest marketplaces. Bauer argued that smaller operators should avoid trying to compete line by line with Amazon and instead use customer data to decide which products, audiences and incentives merit investment.

“Independent retailers don’t need to match Amazon on every price,” he notes. “They need to be more selective about the products they promote and the customers they are trying to reach. Someone who has bought from you before or shown an interest in a particular product is a far better starting point than sending the same offer to everyone.”

That could mean shifting the emphasis from headline percentage cuts to offers designed around customer behaviour. Bundles can increase perceived value, loyalty promotions can reward known shoppers, and a carefully set free-delivery threshold can encourage a bigger basket. However, each mechanic needs to be assessed against fulfilment, acquisition and product costs rather than judged on sales volume alone.

As Bauer puts it: “A carefully chosen bundle, a limited offer for loyal customers or a realistic free-delivery threshold may offer better value than a site-wide discount. But retailers need to work out what each incentive costs them before it goes live. A larger order isn’t necessarily better if the margin has disappeared.”

Earlier shopping raises the stakes

Separate Omnisend holiday shopping research found that 84 per cent of UK respondents expect rising prices to affect their purchasing decisions. Price and affordability was the most frequently cited consideration when buying, at 63.5 per cent, while 28.3 per cent said they were beginning festive shopping earlier than usual.

That earlier start could weaken the value of waiting until the traditional Black Friday weekend to launch a campaign. “Timing matters too,” Bauer says. “Some households are shopping earlier to spread the expense, so waiting until Black Friday itself could mean missing customers whose budgets have already been spent elsewhere. Relevant email and SMS offers can help retailers reach those people without paying to compete for every click.”

Consumers are also widening the tools they use to find and fund purchases. Some 12.5 per cent plan to use Buy Now, Pay Later, with a further 27.4 per cent open to doing so for a big-ticket deal. Meanwhile, 17.5 per cent said they had used generative AI to find online deals or coupons during the previous six months, underlining how easily shoppers can compare offers and search for additional savings.

Black Friday remains the most anticipated festive sales event in the research, with 54.5 per cent planning to shop online and 32.1 per cent in store. Cyber Monday, which falls on 30 November, is expected to attract 20 per cent.

The opportunity for retailers is therefore still substantial—but success may depend less on recording a surge in orders than on ensuring each transaction makes commercial sense.

Bauer concludes: “Black Friday will still bring shoppers through the door and onto retail websites. The challenge is making those purchases worthwhile for both sides, rather than chasing sales figures that look impressive but don’t add up.”

Click here to sign up to Retail Gazette‘s free daily email newsletter